India may see over 2 lakh coronavirus cases a day, warns US study

If no COVID-19 vaccine or medicines are developed, India might record as many as 2.87 coronavirus cases a day by the end of 2021. This is the warning given by researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Around the world there will be 249 million cases and 1.8 million deaths by the middle of 2021 if no effective treatment or vaccination programme is developed.

The paper brought out by MIT researchers looks at the pandemic on a global scale. The model developed tracked community transmission.

Our model captures transmission dynamics for the disease, as well as how, at the country level, transmission rates vary in response to risk perception and weather, testing rates condition infection and death data, and fatality rates depend on demographics and hospitalisation. – Massachusetts Institute of Technology

According to the study, the top 10 countries by projected daily infection rates at the end of 2021 are India, US, South Africa, Iran, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, France and Germany. India will be the worst affected country due to coronavirus followed by the US.

They say that infections are 12 times higher and deaths 50% higher than previously reported. “While actual cases are far greater than official reports suggest, the majority of people remain susceptible”, warns the study. “Every community needs to keep the pandemic under control until a vaccine or treatment is widely available”. It warns that a slow response will increases the human costs.

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