Lifting restrictions puts India among high risk nations, says study

India is among a group of 15 high-risk countries where relaxing lockdowns could lead to a rise in new coronavirus infections, according to an analysis by a research firm called Nomura. This could lead to a situation where tougher lockdown conditions may be reimposed.

The analysis covers 45 major economies and shows that lifting lockdowns will lead to either of two possible scenarios. In the first one, a country experiences a quick recovery in movement of people, and businesses restart with few increases in daily cases. On the other hand, the bad scenario is that the reopening of the economy leads to a sharp rise in the number of daily infections. “In extreme cases, lockdowns would be reimposed,” says the study.

The analysis divides the 45 countries into three groups -‘on track’, facing ‘warning signs’, or in the ‘danger zone’. India falls in the danger zone, along with Indonesia, Chile and Pakistan. Some of the advanced economies in this group are Sweden, Singapore, South Africa and Canada.

Among those on track are France, Italy and South Korea, while countries like Germany, United States and United Kingdom face risks.

The projections come at a time when most of these countries are lifting restrictions so that people can get back to work. The World Health Organisation has urged countries to continue with the efforts to contain the virus.

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